The Future of XRP: Navigating Regulatory Clarity, Ecosystem Expansion, and Value Trajectory
Executive Summary
The future outlook for XRP appears predominantly positive, driven by a convergence of favorable regulatory developments, expanding institutional adoption, and significant technological advancements on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). These factors collectively position XRP for potential value appreciation over the next few years. Ripple's newly launched stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD), is designed to complement, rather than cannibalize, XRP. RLUSD expands the utility and reach of the broader Ripple ecosystem, indirectly fostering increased demand for the XRPL's underlying infrastructure and, by extension, XRP itself. Based on current trajectories and market sentiment, it is more likely that XRP will experience an increase in value over the next few years, though investors must remain cognizant of inherent market volatility and various risk factors.
Introduction: XRP's Evolving Landscape
XRP occupies a unique and long-standing position within the dynamic digital asset market, primarily distinguished by its focus on institutional-grade cross-border payments and liquidity solutions. Its underlying technology, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), is strategically designed to address pervasive inefficiencies within traditional financial systems. This report aims to provide a comprehensive analysis addressing key questions regarding XRP's future outlook, the potential impact of Ripple's new stablecoin RLUSD—specifically, whether it will diminish XRP's utility—and the likelihood of XRP's value increasing or decreasing over the next few years.
As of early July 2025, XRP is recognized as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a testament to its established presence, liquidity, and sustained investor interest.1 This prominent market standing has been maintained despite navigating considerable regulatory challenges, demonstrating the asset's resilience and foundational utility.
XRP's Foundational Utility and Market Standing
XRP's core utility is deeply integrated into facilitating rapid, low-cost, and highly scalable cross-border transactions for financial institutions.1 It functions as an efficient "bridge currency," enabling seamless liquidity between disparate fiat currencies without the necessity of traditional pre-funded accounts. This capability represents a significant improvement in efficiency compared to conventional systems like SWIFT.3
The XRP Ledger (XRPL), launched in 2012, is one of the longest-standing and most well-established blockchain networks.4 Its architectural design supports a high transaction throughput, capable of handling approximately 1,500 transactions per second (TPS), while maintaining near-zero transaction fees. This efficiency is achieved through a unique consensus mechanism that relies on a network of trusted validators, differing significantly from energy-intensive Proof-of-Work (PoW) or capital-intensive Proof-of-Stake (PoS) models.4 Beyond its primary payment function, the XRPL is engineered to support a diverse array of financial applications, including the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), native currency and token issuance, a decentralized exchange (DEX), and robust escrow mechanisms.4
As of early July 2025, XRP's market capitalization stood at an impressive $134 billion 1, firmly establishing its position as a top-tier digital asset globally. Its price on July 3, 2025, was $2.28 1, reflecting its current market valuation. XRP's price history has been marked by considerable volatility, including a notable surge to an all-time high of $3.84 in early January 2018.6 However, a significant portion of its trajectory from 2020 onwards was profoundly influenced by a protracted lawsuit initiated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which controversially alleged that XRP constituted an unregistered security.6
The prolonged SEC lawsuit 5 was more than a mere legal dispute; it imposed a substantial regulatory burden that severely constrained XRP's growth potential and deterred institutional adoption for several years. Institutional capital, by its very nature, is highly sensitive to regulatory uncertainty and potential legal liabilities. This meant that even with strong underlying technology and a compelling use case, the legal cloud prevented widespread institutional integration and investment. The recent resolution of this uncertainty, particularly the outcome largely confirming XRP's non-security status in the U.S. 8, fundamentally de-risks the asset. This shift in regulatory clarity alters the risk profile associated with XRP, making it significantly more attractive and viable for large, compliance-sensitive institutional investors and partners who previously hesitated due to legal ambiguity. This de-risking is a prerequisite for XRP's next phase of institutional integration and growth.
Key Catalysts for XRP's Future Value
Regulatory Clarity and Institutional Integration
The resolution of the SEC lawsuit in March 2025, culminating in Ripple agreeing to a reduced penalty of $50 million, marked a pivotal and highly anticipated moment for XRP.7 This outcome, widely interpreted as a confirmation of XRP's non-security status in the U.S., effectively removed a major regulatory barrier that had long hampered its adoption and significantly boosted overall market confidence.5 Ripple's subsequent formal withdrawal of its cross-appeal further underscores the company's intent to definitively close this multi-year legal chapter.9
In a bold strategic move, Ripple is actively pursuing a U.S. federal banking license with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), as reported in July 2025.11 This initiative signals Ripple's deep ambition to integrate further into the traditional financial system. If approved, this license would empower Ripple to offer direct banking services and act as a qualified custodian for crypto assets, substantially expanding its suite of regulated financial services offerings beyond its established cross-border payments solutions.11
RippleNet, the global payments network built upon the XRPL's efficiency, continues its strategic expansion.5 A significant development in this regard is Ripple's $1.25 billion acquisition of Prime Broker Hidden Road, a move designed to further integrate XRP into institutional finance and enhance its role in decentralized finance (DeFi) and cross-margining between digital and traditional assets.3 Evidence of growing adoption is seen in major banks actively testing RippleNet for improving the efficiency of cross-border payments, indicating a tangible and increasing interest in its capabilities.7 For instance, SBI, a prominent financial institution, already leverages Ripple's technology for international remittances and plays a role in promoting XRP liquidity across Asia.11
The newfound regulatory clarity following the SEC settlement is widely anticipated to catalyze a significant new wave of institutional investment and broader adoption within the financial sector. This increased integration is expected to drive substantial long-term demand for XRP.5 On-chain data provides compelling evidence of this trend, indicating that large holders, often referred to as "whales," are actively increasing their XRP positions. This pattern suggests a strategic accumulation phase by institutional traders at current price levels.8
The confluence of the SEC lawsuit resolution and Ripple's proactive pursuit of a U.S. banking license creates a powerful and self-reinforcing regulatory feedback loop. The initial legal clarity significantly de-risks XRP, making it palatable for previously hesitant institutional players. This increased institutional engagement, in turn, further legitimizes the asset within the broader financial ecosystem, potentially fostering an even more favorable regulatory environment and accelerating mainstream adoption. This positive feedback loop ensures that each step reinforces the next, building momentum for XRP's integration into traditional finance.
Technological Advancements on the XRP Ledger
A pivotal technological advancement slated for 2025 is the integration of Ethereum smart contracts onto the XRPL through the launch of an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible sidechain, with its mainnet release scheduled for Q2 2025.4 This development, confirmed by Ripple CTO David Schwartz, is set to significantly expand XRP's utility beyond its traditional role in payments. It will enable developers to deploy a wide array of decentralized applications (dApps) using familiar Ethereum tools such as Solidity, MetaMask, and Truffle, thereby broadening the XRPL's functional scope.15 Crucially, transactions on this new EVM sidechain will utilize wrapped XRP (wXRP) as the native gas token. This mechanism introduces a novel and direct demand driver for the underlying XRP token, effectively extending its tokenomics beyond its primary function in facilitating cross-border settlements.15 The Axelar network will serve as the exclusive bridge for transferring assets, including the XRP required to create wXRP, between the XRPL mainnet and the new EVM sidechain, thereby connecting XRPL to over 69 other blockchain ecosystems.15
Ripple Labs has unveiled an ambitious roadmap for the XRP Ledger, aiming to establish it as a dominant force in the institutional DeFi space by 2025.14 This roadmap, titled "RippleX – XRPL Feature Proposals 2025," outlines a phased rollout of key initiatives tailored to meet the stringent needs and regulatory considerations of institutional players. These include enhanced infrastructure for control and security (e.g., LP Token Freeze, Deep Freeze for asset control, Simulate Transaction for risk reduction, and permissioned domains in Q1 2025); features for privacy and control (e.g., a permissioned DEX with compliance checks, token escrow services, fine-grained permission management, and batch transactions for efficiency in Q2 2025); and expanded capabilities (e.g., single asset vaults, lending protocols with integrated compliance measures, and MPT Dex integration in Q3 2025).14
The strategic objective of the EVM sidechain is to significantly lower the barrier to entry for developers from the larger Ethereum ecosystem, thereby attracting a broader talent pool and fostering a more diverse and vibrant application environment for XRPL's existing user base, which boasts over six million wallets.15 Initial testnet activity already demonstrates considerable developer interest, with new entities and projects actively building applications.15
The XRPL's deliberate expansion into smart contract capabilities via EVM sidechains and its ambitious institutional DeFi roadmap 14 represents a critical strategic diversification beyond its established core in cross-border payments. This move does not dilute XRP's value; rather, it profoundly enhances it by creating multiple, new avenues for utility and demand. The explicit design choice to use wXRP for gas fees on the EVM sidechain directly ties the growth and success of these new applications and DeFi protocols to the demand for the native XRP token, ensuring that XRP accrues value from the broader ecosystem's expansion. This transforms XRP from a specialized tool into a foundational asset for a broader digital economy.
Market Dynamics and ETF Potential
The market sentiment regarding the launch of an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in 2025 is overwhelmingly positive, with digital prediction markets like Polymarket indicating exceptionally high odds of 98% (a significant increase from 68% in April).1 Applications for XRP spot ETFs from major asset managers such as Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary, and 21Shares are anticipated to receive approval in 2025, with an estimated 85% chance.7 The strong demand and capital inflows observed for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs since their respective debuts suggest a similar, if not greater, potential for XRP ETFs.1 ETF approvals are widely considered a major catalyst, expected to attract substantial additional institutional capital and drive significant price appreciation for XRP.7 However, it is crucial to acknowledge a nuanced perspective: some analysts caution that while an ETF approval could indeed trigger an initial surge (potentially 1,000%), its value could subsequently experience a sharp correction, potentially falling by up to 90% after the initial rally. This reflects the common "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon prevalent in speculative markets.1
Overall market sentiment surrounding XRP is predominantly bullish, particularly following the resolution of the SEC lawsuit.7 Recent price action demonstrates strong bullish momentum, with technical indicators suggesting potential breakouts above key resistance levels.7 On-chain data provides direct evidence of increasing utility and demand. Metrics such as rising network activity, a growing number of active wallets, and high network load directly indicate robust adoption and usage of XRP.7 Furthermore, XRP-linked Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) inflows have been substantial, totaling $219 million in the first half of 2025, underscoring sustained institutional interest.16 "Whale" accumulation, specifically large transfers to exchanges and increased holdings by wallets controlling significant amounts of XRP, signals strong confidence and strategic accumulation by institutional traders at current valuation levels.8
While the approval of an XRP ETF is undoubtedly a major bullish catalyst due to its potential to unlock significant institutional liquidity and broaden accessibility, the explicit warning of a potential sharp correction post-approval 1 highlights a critical short-term volatility risk. This suggests that the market may already be heavily pricing in the ETF approval, leading to profit-taking once the event materializes. Therefore, investors should approach this catalyst with an understanding that immediate post-approval price action might be counter-intuitive, requiring a nuanced strategy that accounts for both long-term fundamental drivers and short-term speculative dynamics.
XRP Key Price Predictions & Influencing Factors (2025-2030)
Ripple USD (RLUSD): A New Pillar in the Ecosystem
Ripple USD (RLUSD) is Ripple's newly launched USD-denominated stablecoin, meticulously designed to maintain a constant value of one US dollar.17 Its foundational principle is full backing by a segregated reserve of highly liquid cash and cash equivalents, including U.S. Treasury Bills and government money market funds, held securely at reputable U.S.-based financial institutions.17
RLUSD is strategically issued natively on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum blockchains. This dual issuance allows it to simultaneously leverage Ethereum's extensive and robust existing ecosystem while benefiting from the inherent speed, exceptionally low transaction costs, and superior scalability of the XRP Ledger.17 A cornerstone of RLUSD's design is its unwavering focus on regulatory adherence and transparency. It is issued by Standard Custody and Trust Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ripple Labs, which is chartered and supervised by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS).2 Ripple further commits to providing comprehensive monthly reserve attestations, conducted by independent certified public accountants, ensuring a high degree of transparency regarding its backing.18 Recent regulatory advancements have significantly bolstered RLUSD's market position. These include the passage of the GENIUS Act in the United States, which establishes a clear regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, and securing approval from Dubai's Financial Services Authority (DFSA), enabling its use within the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC).10
Since its launch in December 2024, RLUSD has demonstrated remarkable market momentum, with its circulating supply surging by nearly 50% in June 2025 alone, pushing its total issuance beyond $455 million by the end of that month.10 While the majority of this supply (approximately $390 million) currently circulates on the Ethereum blockchain, it is noteworthy that over 95% of its actual transactions are occurring on the XRPL network itself, highlighting the direct utility and demand on Ripple's native ledger.10 A significant validation of its institutional appeal came in July 2025 when AMINA Bank, a FINMA-regulated crypto bank based in Switzerland, became the first bank globally to directly support Ripple USD (RLUSD), offering custody and trading services to its client base of professional investors, institutions, and corporations.17 This underscores RLUSD's design as a compliant and trusted digital dollar solution tailored for institutional requirements.10 RLUSD is purpose-built to facilitate real-time, secure, and compliant payments, and to provide easy fiat-to-stablecoin on/off ramps for various entities within the digital asset ecosystem, including exchanges, fintech companies, and crypto onramps.17 Its emphasis on transparency and compliance aligns perfectly with the stringent requirements of institutional adoption.10
Ripple's deliberate multi-jurisdictional regulatory strategy for RLUSD, encompassing approvals from NYDFS, the GENIUS Act, and the Dubai FSA 2, represents a sophisticated approach to position RLUSD as a leading, globally compliant stablecoin. This proactive and comprehensive approach to navigating diverse regulatory landscapes is a key differentiator, designed to capture institutional demand in a highly fragmented and evolving global regulatory environment. By de-risking the stablecoin for institutional use across multiple jurisdictions, Ripple is strategically building trust and accessibility, which is paramount for large-scale adoption.
XRP and RLUSD: A Symbiotic Relationship, Not Cannibalization
A significant debate within the XRP community has revolved around concerns that the introduction of RLUSD could potentially overshadow or diminish XRP's established role, particularly in core areas like cross-border payments and liquidity provision.20 However, Ripple's Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz, has unequivocally affirmed XRP's "irreplaceable" role within the XRPL ecosystem.20 He emphasizes that XRP is the
only native asset used to pay transaction fees on the XRPL, and all accounts on the ledger are mandated to hold a minimum reserve of XRP. This fundamental requirement positions XRP as the essential infrastructure backbone of the network.4
In contrast, RLUSD, as a stablecoin, is fundamentally designed for price stability, maintaining a constant 1:1 peg to the US dollar.17 This inherent stability makes it uniquely well-suited for the trading and settlement needs of institutions and businesses that require certainty in asset value for their operations.20 Its primary functions include facilitating compliant payments and providing seamless fiat-to-cryptocurrency conversion ramps.17 Furthermore, XRP distinguishes itself by functioning as a dynamic liquidity bridge between various assets through its innovative auto-bridging mechanism, a critical feature that stablecoins, by their very design, cannot replicate.20 Moreover, unlike centrally issued stablecoins, XRP is a decentralized asset without a single issuing partner or legal limitations that would allow it to be frozen or recalled, offering a distinct characteristic in the digital asset landscape.20
Ripple has explicitly articulated that RLUSD is not intended to replace XRP but rather to serve as a complementary asset, expanding the overall utility and reach of the Ripple ecosystem.2 The strategic launch and adoption of RLUSD, particularly its native issuance and high transaction volume on the XRP Ledger, are expected to significantly increase overall transaction volume, enhance liquidity, and drive broader adoption of the network itself.3 As the adoption of RLUSD expands, the demand for XRP's underlying infrastructure – its role in facilitating transactions and maintaining network integrity – is projected to grow, especially in institutional and cross-border use cases.2 The surging growth in RLUSD's circulating supply and its high transaction volume on the XRPL directly underscore XRP's potential as a foundational bridge asset within the rapidly expanding cryptocurrency landscape.3
The introduction of RLUSD is not a zero-sum competition with XRP but rather a strategic expansion of Ripple's holistic value proposition. By offering both a highly liquid, volatile bridge asset (XRP) and a stable, compliant medium of exchange (RLUSD), Ripple effectively caters to a broader and more diverse spectrum of institutional needs. This multi-product strategy significantly enhances the overall utility and attractiveness of the XRPL ecosystem. Consequently, this increased ecosystem activity, driven by RLUSD, indirectly but directly benefits XRP by increasing overall network activity, transaction volume, and, critically, demand for its foundational role as the native asset for fees and reserves. This creates a powerful, synergistic relationship where the success of one asset fuels the utility and value of the other.
XRP vs. RLUSD: Functional Comparison
XRP Value Outlook: Scenarios and Projections (Next Few Years)
Bullish Scenario
This scenario is predicated on the widespread and accelerated institutional adoption of RippleNet and XRP for cross-border payments, driven by the newfound regulatory clarity.5 A critical catalyst would be the successful and timely approval of multiple XRP spot ETFs, leading to substantial new capital inflows from both retail and institutional investors.1 Continued robust growth and utility expansion of the XRPL, particularly through the successful integration of the EVM sidechain and the full implementation of its institutional DeFi features, would significantly enhance demand.14 Furthermore, strong macroeconomic tailwinds, including a generally positive global economic outlook and increased global investor confidence, would provide a supportive environment for the broader crypto market.5
Under this scenario, analysts predict that XRP could realistically reach $5 or more by the end of 2025.7 More immediate mid-term targets, such as $4.60, are actively discussed among market participants.9 Long-term projections, extending to $10-$20 by 2030, are based on assumptions of XRP securing a significant market share within the estimated $7.5 trillion daily global remittance market.8 Technical analysts frequently point to patterns like the 334-day triangle, suggesting a "parabolic breakout" and a "monster rally" potentially in Q3 2025.9
Neutral/Consolidation Scenario
This scenario anticipates a period of mixed market signals where positive and negative factors largely offset one another, leading to sideways price action.7 Key contributing factors could include slower-than-expected institutional integration of XRP into existing payment systems, possibly due to lingering regulatory concerns despite the SEC settlement, or a slower pace of adoption than current bullish expectations suggest.7 Delays in anticipated ETF approvals or weaker-than-expected demand and capital inflows post-approval could also cap upward momentum.7 A general weakening of market momentum or a period of consolidation in the broader cryptocurrency market would also contribute to this outlook.
Under this scenario, XRP's price would likely stabilize within a defined range, with various analysts suggesting a consolidation between $1.80 and $2.50.7 This implies continued fundamental development and gradual adoption, but without the explosive, rapid growth characteristic of a strongly bullish environment.
Bearish Scenario
A primary risk factor is intensified competition from emerging blockchain-based payment solutions or alternative stablecoin offerings that could aggressively erode XRP's market share if its adoption does not accelerate sufficiently.6 The emergence of new or unfavorable regulatory developments, despite recent clarity, could reintroduce uncertainty and negatively impact market sentiment.7 Significant technical weaknesses in XRP's price behavior, such as persistent failure to break through long-term resistance levels or decisive drops below key support levels, could trigger cascade sell-offs.7 Finally, broader cryptocurrency market downturns or severe negative macroeconomic shocks (e.g., global recessions, financial crises) would inevitably impact XRP's value, regardless of its specific fundamentals.5 Price declines are possible, potentially correcting back to $2 or lower if critical support levels are breached due to sustained selling pressure.7
XRP's future price trajectory is a complex and dynamic interplay between its strong fundamental developments (e.g., regulatory clarity, accelerating institutional adoption, and significant technological advancements on the XRPL) and the often-unpredictable technical market dynamics (e.g., ETF speculation, on-chain data, and chart patterns). While robust fundamentals provide a solid long-term foundation and inherent growth potential, short-to-medium term volatility and precise price movements are frequently dictated by technical factors, market sentiment, and speculative trading behavior. This implies that even with strong underlying value, market psychology and trading patterns can lead to significant short-term deviations. For a strategic investor, this implies that while the long-term thesis for XRP might be bullish due to fundamentals, tactical entry and exit points, as well as risk management, must account for the inherent technical volatility and speculative nature of the crypto market.
XRP Price Performance & Key Milestones (Past Year & Current)
Risks and Challenges
While the SEC lawsuit has largely been resolved, the broader regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies remains inherently fluid and subject to continuous evolution. New legislation, unforeseen interpretations of existing laws, or shifts in regulatory priorities could still introduce new challenges or impact XRP's operational environment.5 Furthermore, potential delays in the approval of Ripple's banking license application or prolonged pauses in ETF decisions could temper market momentum and investor confidence in the short to medium term.12
The digital payments and blockchain technology sectors are characterized by rapid innovation and fierce competition. Rising competition from a multitude of emerging blockchain-based payment solutions, alternative bridge currencies, and new stablecoin offerings could potentially erode XRP's market share if its adoption and utility do not accelerate at a pace sufficient to maintain its competitive edge.6
Despite Ripple's extensive network of partnerships with financial institutions, some assessments suggest that the actual, widespread use of XRP as a bridge currency by banks has remained "below expectations" thus far.7 If this trend persists, or if major financial institutions opt for alternative blockchain solutions or traditional payment rails, it could pose a significant risk to the long-term demand and value proposition of XRP.
XRP's value, like virtually all other digital assets, remains inherently susceptible to broader macroeconomic factors. Adverse shifts in monetary policy, persistent inflationary pressures, or significant global economic downturns (e.g., recessions, geopolitical instability) can trigger widespread de-risking across financial markets, leading to sell-offs in the cryptocurrency sector regardless of XRP's specific fundamental strengths.5
The cryptocurrency market is known for its inherent speculative nature and significant price volatility. XRP is not immune to this; overbought conditions can lead to sharp corrections 8, and a failure to decisively break through key long-term resistance levels, or a drop below critical support thresholds, could trigger further sell-offs and negatively impact investor sentiment.7
Conclusion and Strategic Implications
The comprehensive analysis suggests that XRP's future outlook is predominantly bullish, underpinned by a confluence of powerful catalysts. The decisive resolution of the protracted SEC lawsuit has provided crucial regulatory clarity, significantly de-risking the asset for institutional engagement. This clarity, combined with Ripple's strategic pursuit of a U.S. banking license and its expanding network of institutional partnerships (including the Hidden Road acquisition), positions XRP for accelerated adoption within traditional finance. Furthermore, the ambitious technological roadmap for the XRP Ledger, particularly the integration of EVM smart contracts and the development of institutional DeFi features, promises to broaden XRP's utility and create new demand drivers. Crucially, the introduction of Ripple USD (RLUSD) is confirmed to be a symbiotic development, enhancing the overall Ripple ecosystem and indirectly boosting demand for XRP's foundational role, rather than diminishing its utility.
While the path to higher valuations for XRP is not without its inherent challenges, the current momentum, coupled with these strategic developments and the high probability of XRP ETF approvals, positions XRP as a significant and evolving player in the future of digital finance. The confluence of regulatory, technological, and market-driven factors indicates a strong likelihood of value appreciation over the next few years.
For sophisticated investors and institutional clients, the analysis suggests a balanced and informed approach is warranted. While XRP presents compelling growth potential driven by its unique utility and expanding ecosystem, it remains subject to market volatility and the inherent risks of the nascent digital asset class. Strategic implications include closely monitoring regulatory developments, observing the pace of institutional adoption, evaluating the impact of ETF launches, and understanding the synergistic relationship between XRP and RLUSD. The detailed analysis provided in this report offers a robust framework for making informed investment and strategic decisions in this dynamic and promising asset.
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